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NWO.AI predicts: Blue Gold threatens stability in Africa

Miro Dimitrov

Ancient Egypt could not have existed without the river Nile. Since rainfall is almost non-existent in Egypt, the floods provided the only source of moisture to sustain crops. Every year, heavy summer rain in the Ethiopian highlands, sent a torrent of water that overflowed the banks of the Nile. When the floods went down it left thick black silt which was excellent soil to plant seeds in after it had been plowed.

Digging deeper: The leaders of Egypt have been losing sleep for the greater part of the previous decade over the construction of a $4.8B Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt, a nation already experiencing acute water shortage due to the adverse effects of climate change, has 90% of its population depending on water from the Nile. Disputes triggered by international dam construction are nothing new. NWO.AI's signals had previously surfaced a buildup regarding to the China-India water dispute over the Brahmaputra River.

Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

What differentiates the Nile situation from all the other disputes is that never before in history have a few nations relied solely on one river (11 nations and over 100 million people). In June 2013, the now-deposed Egyptian leader Mohammed Morsi came close to threatening war with Ethiopia over the project. “The lives of the Egyptians have connected around [the Nile]… If it diminishes by one drop then our blood is the alternative,” he said in a broadcast speech at the time.

Following a failed settlement in Q4 2019, the signal for the dispute over the water calmed down in January 2020, NWO.AI's signal page for the dispute reveals. This was in anticipation of a draft deal signed by the 3 nations. For once, the dispute looked like it might be settled once and for all. The sentiment associated with the signal, which had been largely negative throughout the history of the issue turned positive for the first time.

Source: NWO.AI signal page for Grand Renaissance Dam Dispute 

Source: NWO.AI signal page for Grand Renaissance Dam Dispute

But then, things got worse: NWO.AI's predictive platform, which tracks 20 million mega and micro shifts in real-time and warns on inflection points, sounded the alarm to clients about an inflection point that resulted in a dramatic buildup. As of last week, the signal had reached an all-time-high Impact Score of 64.

Source: NWO.AI signal page for Grand Renaissance Dam Dispute

What's next? As Ethiopia prepares to fill the Nile Dam this month, Egypt appealed to the United Nations Security Council, as well as the Arab League and other African, Middle Eastern, and European states to urgently intervene. "A threat of potentially existential proportions has emerged that could encroach on the single source of livelihood of over 100 million Egyptians,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told the United Nations Security Council.

If an agreement can be reached in the near term, it will be a welcome change for all 3 parties. In any case, NWO.AI will be listening in. NWO.AI generates predictive alerts that enable organizations to stay ahead of the game by pre-empting them about rising trends before they become exponential. Reach out for a demo and we can help you better understand your category and ways to approach it.

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